Christopher Combs, Chief Investment Officer, Silicon Valley Capital Partners
November 4, 2026
1.Earnings expectations are improving against the usual seasonal pattern. FactSet reports that analysts raised fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings estimates by 1.4% during October, from $93.49 to $94.79 per share. Historically, estimates typically decline during the quarter’s first month. This marks the third consecutive quarter of initial upward revisions, suggesting that corporate earnings expectations remain resilient despite elevated energy costs and inflation concerns.
2. Aggregate strength remains uneven across sectors. FactSet reports that Energy led fourth-quarter revisions with a 20.3% increase, while Consumer Staples estimates declined 4.0%. Bloomberg Intelligence’s separate analysis of third-quarter results also identifies concentrated strength: excluding energy and AI-related companies, earnings growth falls roughly in half, to 14%. The implication is that investors should examine the breadth and durability of profits alongside the headline numbers.
3.Easing energy prices and inflation expectations could provide another tailwind through late 2027. Our forward-looking framework considers the possibility that today’s elevated pressures represent a cyclical peak. If energy futures prices and market-implied inflation expectations decline through the back end of 2027—and lower costs materialize—businesses could benefit from reduced transportation, manufacturing, and distribution expenses, while households regain purchasing power. Reuters has reported a sharp retreat in oil prices, and Bloomberg has identified disinflationary forces beneath elevated headline inflation. Neither establishes the full 2027 path, but both support examining this scenario. The potential benefit would be broader earnings participation beyond today’s leaders, although lower oil prices could also reduce Energy-sector profits.
Sources: FactSet, November 4, 2026; Bloomberg Intelligence, October 30, 2026; Bloomberg Economics, November 2, 2026; Reuters, November 4, 2026. The outlook through late 2027 represents our analysis, not a verified futures-market forecast.