Updates – Macro Trend

Trump 2.0 Flatter and Fatter Distribution Outcome

Donald Trump’s First Term Accomplishments versus Second Term Opportunities: Less Levers to Pull Christopher Combs Chief Capital Market Strategist Silicon Valley Capital Partners Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States begins under markedly different economic conditions than his first. The economic backdrop of January 2017 offered distinct advantages compared to January 2025, […]

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US Services Activity Expands by Most in More Than Three Years

Vince Golle Bloomberg December 16, 2024 Activity at US service providers is expanding at the fastest pace since October 2021, providing momentum for the economy even as the downturn in manufacturing worsens. The S&P Global flash December index for service providers increased to 58.5 from 56.1. A figure exceeding 50 indicates expansion. The group’s composite […]

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A Quarter of Your Retirement Fund Just Isn’t Keeping Up

Ben Eisen Wall Street Journal November 28, 2024 U.S. stocks have been euphoric lately—and they’ve left international stocks in the dust. The longtime performance gap between the two is widening. Since the end of 2009, an MSCI index tracking equities outside the U.S. has only topped the S&P 500 in two years, according to Dow […]

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US Services Activity Expands at Fastest Pace Since Early 2023

Vince Golle Bloomberg October 3, 2024 US service providers expanded in September at the fastest pace since February 2023, driven by a flurry of orders and stronger business activity. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 3.4 points to 54.9 last month, the group said Thursday. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, and the latest figure […]

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Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, on path to ‘soft landing’ with no meaningful layoffs

Rebecca Picciotto CNBC September 7, 2024 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she believes the U.S. economy is healthy and that recent months of cooler jobs data is a signal of a soft landing, not a recession. Yellen said the U.S. is not seeing meaningful layoffs and the economy is “deep into a recovery.” U.S. […]

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US INSIGHT: AI Driving a Productivity Boom? Early Evidence – Yes

David Wilcox Bloomberg August 16, 2024 Over the past four quarters, the US has enjoyed a solid run of real GDP growth. That could be a statistical blip that will be revised away as the Bureau of Economic Analysis refines its estimates. But if it survives, it will be a surprising development — because over […]

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Steadfast US Consumer, Job Market Allay Concerns About Economy

Vince Golle Bloomberg August 15, 2024 Steadfast US Consumer, Job Market Allay Concerns About Economy ▪              Retail sales increased in July by most since early 2023 ▪              Jobless claims remain low, but manufacturing data are weak Fresh readings on retail spending and unemployment benefits quelled some of the restiveness about the US economy, parts of […]

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Goldman’s Kostin Says US Earnings Bar Is Set Highest Since 2021

Sagarika Jaisinghani Bloomberg July 01, 2024 Corporate America faces the highest earnings bar in almost three years as it prepares to report second-quarter results, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists. Single-stock analysts predict profits at S&P 500 firms rose 9% on average in the April-June period — the biggest year-over-year increase since the fourth […]

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US Services Activity Expands by Most in More Than Two Years

Vince Golle Bloomberg June 21, 2024 S&P Global’s flash June gauge advanced to 55.1 from 54.8 Manufacturing index also rose, while price measures cooled US services activity picked up marginally early this month to the fastest pace in more than two years while the outlook improved on cooler price pressures and prospects for lower borrowing […]

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US Service Providers Chalk Up Strongest Growth in Nine Months

US Service Providers Chalk Up Strongest Growth in Nine Months ISM services PMI jumped 4.4 points in May to 53.8 Business activity posts biggest monthly gain in three years By Vince Golle Bloomberg, 06/05/2024 The US services sector expanded in May by the most in nine months, powered by the largest monthly gain in a measure […]

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