Updates

Yellen Says Yield Surge Is Due to Strong Economy, Not Deficits

October 26th, 2023|

Viktoria Dendrinou, Christopher Condon, and Margaret Collins Bloomberg October 26, 2023 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the surge in longer-term bond yields in recent months is a reflection of a strong US economy, not the jump in government borrowing driven by a widening fiscal deficit. “I don’t think much of that is connected” to the US budget deficit, Yellen

US PREVIEW: Third-Quarter GDP to Blow by Consensus Estimate

October 25th, 2023|

Eliza Winger Bloomberg October 25, 2023 A frenzy of summer spending on travel and entertainment drove real GDP growth to an unsustainable pace in the third quarter. A narrowing trade deficit and modest build up of inventories also added to the topline figure. We expect consumption to slow in 4Q given elevated inflation, high interest

Wall Street rises as upbeat earnings, forecasts lift sentiment

October 24th, 2023|

Shubham Batra and Shashwat Chauhan Reuters October 24, 2023 Wall Street's main stock indexes advanced on Tuesday as upbeat forecasts from Verizon, Coca-Cola and others boosted optimism about corporate America's health in the face of a slowing economy and higher inflation. Verizon (VZ.N) surged 9.1% after the U.S. wireless carrier raised its annual free cash flow forecast,

The Economy Was Supposed to Slow by Now. Instead It’s Revving Up.

October 23rd, 2023|

David Harrison The Wall Street Journal October 23, 2023 Earlier this year, economists and Federal Reserve officials predicted that the U.S. economy would be sputtering by now as higher interest rates cut into spending and investment. The opposite is happening. Recent economic data suggest the economy is accelerating despite higher borrowing costs, the resumption of

US Retail Sales Top Forecasts in Sign of Durable Consumer Demand

October 19th, 2023|

Augusta Saraiva Bloomberg October 17, 2023 Increase in household purchases spans variety of categories Data bolster already-robust economic growth in third quarter US retail sales increased in September by more than forecast in a broad advance that suggests durable household demand as the third quarter drew to a close. The value of retail purchases, unadjusted for

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

October 15th, 2023|

In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros The Wall Street Journal October 15, 2023 Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue

Wall Street Is Marking Up Forecasts as Profit Downturn Nears End

October 11th, 2023|

Jessica Menton Bloomberg October 11, 2023 Strongest upward revisions ahead of earnings since early 2022 Shows hopes for ‘Goldilocks scenario’ after Fed’s rate hikes Wall Street analysts are boosting US earnings forecasts even before results start rolling in, signaling that the worst of the profit slump is likely over as ebbing inflation eases the pressure

Summers Says ‘Energizer Bunny’ Economy Signals Fed Hikes Failing

October 6th, 2023|

Christopher Anstey Bloomberg October 6, 2023 Ex-Treasury chief says Fed hikes may not be working as in past Summers says supply-demand imbalance helping drive yields up Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the surge in US job growth last month is “great news” for now but also suggests the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes aren’t working as they used to,

Underlying US inflation pressures subside in August

September 29th, 2023|

Lucia Mutikani Reuters September 29, 2023 Consumer spending increases 0.4% in August Core PCE price index gains 0.1%; up 3.9% year-on-year Underlying U.S. inflation pressures moderated in August, with the annual rise in prices excluding food and energy falling below 4.0% for the first time in more than two years, welcome news for the Federal

The Fed’s New Dot Plot After Its September Policy Meeting: Chart

September 20th, 2023|

Vince Golle Bloomberg September 20, 2023 The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate is 5.6%. The estimate for the end of 2024 increased to 5.1%. Fed policymakers on Wednesday held

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